The Denver Real Estate Blog
Danyliw & Associates REALTORS
The word for March……Stabilizing
1426 days
The good news is that the February numbers showed some promise. First of all a comment on activity. As we mentioned last month, we usually see an increase in activity around mid January but this year it didn’t happen. This caused a little concern as we drifted into February. Then about mid February someone turned on the lights. We have seen a definite increase in showing activity as buyers started to come out of winter hibernation. It’s continuing into March.
The real surprise was in the listing numbers. We ended the month at 18,685 active listings. That’s down 3.4% from last February and down 0.6% form January. That’s the first time in the last 10 years that inventory has dropped from January to February. It may be even longer than that but our records don’t back any longer. It’s too early to read much into it but it’s certainly positive. The good news on this front also is that the number of foreclosures has continued to drop.
Under contracts jumped 17.3% in February from January, again following the increase in activity level that produced results. The under contracts were down 16.3% compared to February last year, but last year we were going full blast with the tax credit.
The median price or properties closed in February dropped $10,000 due in part to the “mix”. Year to date we’re still up about $3,000 compared to last year.
John and I were part of a group of about 30 REALTORS who met with Congressman Ed Pearlmutter last month. We spent a couple of hours sharing our concerns about the real estate industry and what we felt was needed to revive our business. We spent a lot of time on the financing arena, talking about FHA, Fannie, and Freddie and what we’d like to see in the future. We also talked about the “overlays” lenders have put in place that have been an undue restriction in getting buyers qualified. God forbid that you might be self-employed. Since he sits on the House Finance Committee, he can have some impact in what happens. It was a very productive meeting as the REALTOR group consisted of REALTORS with a wealth of experience and longevity in the industry.
All in all February had some pretty positive signs that we’ve been looking for. Now we’ll see if it’s a trend. As always, we thank you for your business.
A Taste of 2011
1461 days
2011 is here but it’s too early in the game to make any predictions. From all we here it should be somewhat better than 2010. Last year saw sales decrease 12% from 2009. We experienced some jet lag last year after the tax credit ended. Some positive signs are on the horizon but it’s going to be a slow go to recovery. Foreclosures will be with us for some time but Colorado got a little better last year as the number of foreclosures decreased.. The last few years, with tighter qualifications on the part of lenders, the good news was that it produced a better preforming loan portfolio and that leads to less foreclosures in the future. Also those adjustable rate loans that were adjusting up, in some cases $200, $300 a month and more are now adjusting downwards with the low interest rates. That’s another positive sign for foreclosures. Plus interest rates overall should remain low for awhile. If you’re planning on making a move you might give the immediate future some serious cosideration. Bottom line is that we should see some steady improvement as we go deeper into this year.
December’s Newsletter
0521 days
November re-sale numbers are in and all was as expected. We’re still living the post tax credit blues.
First the good news. There were 39 single-family homes sold/closed in November for $1 million or more. For those of you selling in that price range, you had a great month. For the rest of us the numbers didn’t work out so well.
Under contracts were 3,101 for November, down 16% from October and down 10% from November of ’09. Again, the tax credit was in play last year and the drop over October has some seasonal ramifications as we get into the Holiday season. The average sales price rose 8% compared to November ’09 but the “mix” was involved with last years’ lower end sales numbers, again because of the tax credit.
Available inventory was down 7% compared to October and that’s due to the season as we normally tail off towards the end of the year. That’s also a good thing. The average days on market for detached units took a significant hit last month, increasing 37% compared to November ’09. We’re now looking at 108 days. We were under 90. Condos jumped to 125 days, an increase of 42% from a year ago.
Overall activity has slowed and it’s easy enough to blame the economy and loss of jobs but that’s only a part of the story. Consumer confidence is also a culprit and lenders are another. Tougher and tighter credit restrictions have taken a toll. Lenders seem to want to make loans only to prime, prime buyers. To their credit, loans made this year and last year are overall performing very well. That at least should bode well for the future foreclosure market. Unfortunately this “over correction” has shut out a number of buyers that want to buy and should buy.
The problem still persists for sellers who have bought in ’06 to ’09 with high balance loans and those that have refied or put on 2nds during those years. They have jobs and want to but new homes but it becomes almost impossible to get them out of their existing home. Such is the impact of foreclosures and short sales.
Will it get better? History says yes. It’s going to be a slow climb. But there are positive signs out there. The real good news is that in times like these it makes us better professionals and makes us perform much better service to our clients.
As always, we very much appreciate your business.
POST TAX CREDIT DEPRESSION
0538 days
We did project 2010 to be slightly better than 2009. We’re going to take a “do-over”. The first quarter was very good do to the tax credit. When that ended at the end of April, the low end of the market dropped in May, June, and July. Year to date sales inthe Metro area for the first 6 months are down around 2% compared to ’09.. That’s not bad considering sales in May, June, and July were down around 30%. Again most of that was in the lower price ranges. Active listings were up but not dramatically. There are a number of people who would like to make a move but don’t have the equity to sell their old house. This is a building of “shadow demand”. As the market improves and prices go up there will be a good number of both buyers and sellers. The bottom line on timing will be the economy and jobs. As the job market improves so will the real estate market. So, our “do-over” is that we expect the greater Denver real estate market to end the year down 5-8 % compared to 2009. The best interest rates in 50 years are not making mush of a difference as lenders continue to tighten qualification requirements. As banks got in trouble, as did GSA’s, they overreacted. It really has to swing back the other way. Lastly foreclosures and short sals will be with us for the forseeable future. If you’re a buyer you really can’t afford to miss the golden opportunity that you have right now.
Aurora HOAP Program Offers Help to First-Time Homebuyers
13786 days
The HOAP program was started in 1985 with the intent to provide low to moderate-income families the opportunity for home ownership. HOAP stands for Home Ownership Assistance Program and is operated by the Community Development Division of the Aurora city government.
HOAP Housing Counselors provide:
Pre-Purchase Counseling
Foreclosure Prevention Counseling
Pre-Foreclosure Sale Counseling
Educational Seminars
Loan Programs for First-Time Homebuyers
Reverse Mortgage Counseling
Danyliw & Associates have had success working with buyers utilizing the First-Time Homebuyers Loan Program. This program gives education and financial assistance. Click the link above to see eligibility requirements.
New Listing on 5800 Tower Road #5-509
0786 days
by Steven Danyliw
in Uncategorized
Call John Danyliw @ 303-880-2585 for your private showing.
NEW SHORT SALE REGULATIONS
0787 days
New short sale regulations coming April 5th. New government program called HAFA which will be voluntary among lenders will hopefully shorten the short sale process as well as establishing procedures for loan modifications and Deeds in lieu. It is complex and a REALTOR will have to help you with forms and procedures. Some of the big banks are on board and I’m sure others will follow. HAFA stands for “Home affordable foreclosure alternatives” and it will provide incentives to servicers as well as $1,500 for sellers to relocate. Like most government programs we’ll have to see how it all shakes out. Call Danyliw & Associates at 303-880-2585 for specific details and explanations.
This Year Better than Last….
0787 days
From everything we hear 2010 promisses to be better than 2009 in the real estate arena. Most areas of the country are starting to see increased activity. This is due in part to the extention of the first time buyer tax credit and the new $6,500 repeat buyer tax credit. We’re seeimg some increased activity in the metro Denver area also. Builders are starting out on a positive note , opening new subdivisions and starting to build “spec” inventory in anticipation of better sales.
The National Association of REALTORS has just launched a new consumer web site called HouseLogic that’s designed to help consumers make smart decisions and take responsible actions to maintain and increase the value of their homes. It’s a comprehensive web site about all aspects of home ownership. Best of all , it’s free. Take a look. It’s well worth your time.
Active listings took a tick up in January for the first time in awhile. This is a normal seasonal occurance as people get over the holidays and get back in the swing of things again. People are realizing that with the low interest rates and tax credits that they may not see a better time to buy a home. The window of opportunity is open. Don’t let it pass you by.
If you’re thinking of buying another home and renting out your existing home the rules have changed that will effect your qualifing for the replacement home. Give us a call at 303-880-2585 and we’ll go over the changes with you